Industry leaders warned that escalating tensions in the Middle East are beginning to ripple through global shipping networks, pushing up fuel costs and injecting new uncertainty into supply chains linking Asia and North America.

Speaking at a media briefing at the Port of Los Angeles on Thursday, the port's executive director Gene Seroka and shipping veteran Ron Widdows said the conflict has already driven bunker fuel prices sharply higher and could eventually disrupt cargo flows if it persists.

While the immediate impact on trans-Pacific trade has so far been limited, they said the longer the conflict continues, the greater the potential for congestion, rising shipping costs and shifts in cargo routing across Asia's major transshipment hubs.

"The war creates a lot of anxiety," Seroka said in response to a question from China Daily. "Companies across the supply chain are spending a lot of time scenario-building for the day when cargo can move again, looking for workarounds and assessing how these elevated energy costs will affect not only their own operations but also their customers."

One of the most immediate effects of the conflict has been a sharp rise in energy prices, particularly bunker fuel used to power container ships.

According to Seroka, bunker fuel prices have effectively doubled since the outbreak of hostilities — a development that shipping lines typically pass on to cargo owners through surcharges or freight rate adjustments.

"The price at the pump is up more than 60 cents since this war started," he said, adding that crude oil prices have again approached the $100-per-barrel mark. "Those increases are passed on almost immediately, sometimes with as little as 30 days' notice to shippers."

At the same time, the industry is grappling with a series of overlapping challenges, including tariff uncertainties, evolving trade policies and geopolitical tensions that continue to weigh on global commerce.

"What we heard loud and clear from carriers, retailers and logistics providers is that planning horizons have shortened dramatically," Seroka said. "Companies are hesitant to make long-term commitments until there's more clarity on policy and geopolitical developments."

Despite the uncertainty, Seroka emphasized that the trans-Pacific corridor — the busiest maritime trade route linking Asia and North America — remains the most valuable market for shipping lines.

"For us, the trans-Pacific trade is still the most lucrative in the shipping industry," he said. "A premium is placed on these services by shipping lines, ports, importers and exporters to keep those supply chains running."

The Port of Los Angeles currently receives about 40 regular container services, most operating direct routes across the Pacific without intermediate stops.

Widdows, who previously led several major ocean carriers and now heads one of the United States' largest chassis leasing companies, said the current situation represents one of the most disruptive maritime environments he has seen in decades.

"If you recall the Iran–Iraq war in the 1980s, with mining in the Gulf and attacks on oil facilities, even that didn't create the kind of disruption we're seeing today," Widdows said.

Although the fighting is geographically concentrated, its economic effects extend far beyond the region.

"It's certainly affecting the region broadly, not just inside the Persian Gulf," he said.

One major disruption involves container flows connected to Iran. According to Widdows, much of Iran's consumer goods supply chain relies on transshipment through Dubai.

"Most people don't realize that the supply chain into Iran runs through Dubai," he said. "Almost all container cargo moving into Iran is transshipped there. When that stops, it has an enormous impact on the population."

Beyond the Gulf region, disruptions are already spreading through major logistics hubs in Asia.

As carriers divert or delay vessels originally bound for Middle Eastern ports, cargo is being unloaded at alternative transshipment centers such as Singapore, Colombo and Salalah.

That sudden influx of containers is placing pressure on terminal capacity and slowing cargo handling operations.

"These hubs begin to fill up," Widdows said. "It affects terminal utilization, it impacts productivity and creates knock-on effects throughout the system."

Because container shipping operates through highly interconnected global networks, even regional disruptions can quickly affect trade routes thousands of miles away.

"We will likely start to see some impact on cargo flows relatively soon," Widdows said. "Shipping networks are highly interconnected. Vessels serving the Middle East also move cargo between ports across the Gulf, India, Southeast Asia and North Asia."

Widdows said port operators across Asia are already trying to reroute or segment cargo flows to keep goods moving, but available capacity is limited.

"Ports across Asia are trying to segregate and reroute cargo, but space is finite," he said. "It doesn't take long before capacity constraints begin to build when these large shipping networks are under pressure."

For ports and shipping companies, the coming weeks may prove critical in determining whether disruptions remain localized or spread more widely through global supply chains.

"If this situation continues for an extended period," Widdows said, "the knock-on effects on cargo volumes and network efficiency will become increasingly visible."