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Manila should realize reliance on US promises is a risky game

By Li Yang | China Daily | Updated: 2026-03-29 20:05
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An aerial drone photo taken on Nov 14, 2025 shows a panoramic view of China's Huangyan Island in the South China Sea. [Photo/Xinhua]

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr appears to have convinced himself that he can walk a geopolitical tightrope without ever looking down.

On the one hand, he courts Washington, granting the Pentagon access to more military bases, hosting United States missile systems, and allowing the Philippines to be positioned as a forward outpost for whatever confrontation some in Washington have in mind. On the other hand, he courts Beijing — for trade, for investment, for the infrastructure that keeps his economy afloat.

So every few months, when the provocations in the South China Sea threaten to tip the balance, his diplomatic pendulum swings in China’s direction, pledging to enhance dialogue. He later swings back, to do it all over again.

This weekend in Quanzhou, Fujian province, at the 11th meeting of the bilateral consultation mechanism on the South China Sea, China and the Philippines discussed maritime law enforcement cooperation, marine science and technology, and the consultations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, agreeing to “properly manage” the situation.

Yet the gap between Philippine rhetoric and Philippine behavior also grew ever wider.

On Wednesday last week, when a ship of the People’s Liberation Army Navy was conducting a routine patrol in the waters under China’s jurisdiction near Zhubi Reef of China’s Nansha Islands, a Philippine Navy ship, ignoring repeated radio reminders from the Chinese side, dangerously approached the PLA Navy ship and disrupted its navigation. Thanks to the PLA Navy ship taking professional, standardized moves, an accident was successfully avoided.

The operation of the Philippine Navy ship could have easily led to a maritime accident. Worse still, the Philippine side falsely accused the Chinese side of acting dangerously.

The Philippine side is urged to strictly control the operations of its maritime and air troops, immediately cease all provocative and risky acts, as well as its smear campaigns and propaganda. The PLA remains on high alert at all times and will resolutely defend China’s territorial sovereignty, security, and peace and stability in the South China Sea, Zhai Shichen, a spokesperson for the PLA Southern Theater Command, said.

This is the Marcos two-step: provoke Beijing in the waters, then rush to the negotiating table to smooth things over so that the trade relationship stays intact. It is a strategy that hinges on China’s patience being infinite.

It has been Manila’s belief that the US can reduce the risks of harmful consequences from its strategic recklessness. That this is delusional was laid bare in a way that could not be more inconvenient for Marcos.

The Philippines has been granting the US an expanded military presence on its territory, deepening military cooperation with it and positioning itself as the US’ most reliable partner in the region. And what did that alliance deliver when the Philippines declared a national energy emergency after a spike in global oil prices triggered by the US-Israeli attacks against Iran threatened its economy? Nothing.

The US is not in the business of solving other countries’ problems. It is in the business of using other nations to solve its own. When the war in Iran pushed up oil prices, did US tankers rush to Manila’s rescue? They did not.

Meanwhile, China remains the Philippines’ major trading partner. Marcos appreciated China’s stable supply of fertilizers last week that is crucial for the country’s agricultural production. Chinese investment, infrastructure projects, and market access are not abstractions — they enhance people’s livelihoods.

Marcos knows this. Which is why, even as his coast guard and naval ships jostle with Chinese vessels in the South China Sea, his diplomats show up in Quanzhou talking about cooperation and stability.

It is time for Manila to stop the two-step and make a genuine commitment to dialogue, and to the full implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. That would serve the interests of the Philippines and the region.

Making waves wins no hearts. Fomenting trouble finds no takers. It’s in times of trouble that countries realize who their real friends are.

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