China's fast-growing market for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is bracing for a major shake-up as the core compound patent for semaglutide was expiring in March, opening the door for multiple domestic pharmaceutical companies to launch generic versions and compete for a market worth tens of billions of yuan.

Prices for several leading obesity drugs have already dropped sharply.

Novo Nordisk's semaglutide injection has seen prices fall by nearly half on provincial procurement platforms. A 3ml dose (3.2mg/ml) that previously sold for about 2,463 yuan ($340) now costs around 1,284 yuan. On retail platforms, similar price cuts have followed.

Tirzepatide, a dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist, has reduced prices even more aggressively. Monthly treatment costs for some doses have dropped by more than 80 percent, according to weight-management clinics at the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University in Guangzhou, Guangdong province.

Domestic players are also joining the price competition. Innovent Biologics' obesity drug mazdutide has cut prices on e-commerce platforms in the past few weeks, reflecting mounting competitive pressure.

Industry analysts say the price cuts are driven by upcoming reimbursement changes and the approaching expiration of key patents. Starting Jan 1, tirzepatide was included in China's national medical insurance program, becoming the world's first GIP/GLP-1 dual-target therapy covered by public insurance.

The high stakes reflect the enormous market potential. An increasing number of Chinese adults are now overweight or obese, according to national health guidelines, yet GLP-1 drugs currently reach only about 1 percent of the eligible population.

Global demand is also surging. Semaglutide generated more than $25 billion in sales in the first three quarters of 2025, putting it on track to become the world's top-selling drug. Analysts at Barclays estimate the global weight-loss drug market could reach $150 billion within the next decade.

With generics poised to flood the market and prices already falling sharply, competition in China's obesity-drug sector is entering what industry observers describe as a new and more intense phase.