The escalating conflict in the Middle East is increasingly threatening food security across Africa, with global agencies warning the fallout from energy, fertilizer and trade disruptions could push millions more into hunger.

The crisis, centered in the oil-rich Gulf region and threatening the Strait of Hormuz, is already sending shock waves through global commodity markets, fueling concerns that further escalation could trigger a broader food security crisis across Africa, analysts say.

If the conflict continues through the middle of the year and oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, the World Food Programme has warned that an additional 45 million people worldwide could fall into acute food insecurity in 2026.

The WFP estimates that the number of people facing acute hunger globally could rise from a prewar baseline of 318 million to about 363 million this year if the war continues through the second quarter.

"Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to bear the largest share of the increase," the agency said in an analysis of the potential impact of the conflict.

It projects an additional 28 million in the region could face acute food insecurity — 16 million in eastern and southern Africa and 12 million in western and central Africa.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has also warned that the escalating hostilities around Iran and the wider Middle East are sharply increasing risks to global energy, fertilizer and agri-food systems.

Raising costs

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are already raising global energy and agricultural input costs, the FAO said.

About 45 percent of global urea fertilizer shipments pass through the waterway, meaning prolonged disruption could significantly affect agricultural production in regions that depend heavily on imported supplies, including many African countries.

Higher fertilizer prices and shortages could reduce crop yields, while rising energy costs would drive up transportation and food production expenses, further increasing food price volatility, the FAO said.

In Kenya, Agriculture Principal Secretary Paul Kipronoh said the conflict has disrupted fertilizer supplies, leading to acute shortages as maize farmers begin planting.

The war has forced shipping companies to divert vessels away from the Strait of Hormuz to longer routes around southern Africa, delaying the arrival of fertilizer cargo destined for Kenyan farmers, he said.

In addition, local media reported that disruptions to maritime routes have left millions of kilograms of tea stuck in warehouses in the port city of Mombasa, threatening export earnings and farmer incomes.

Kenyan President William Ruto recently acknowledged that the conflict has already begun affecting parts of the country's export sector.

"Meat exports have faced setbacks due to logistical and freight challenges linked to the ongoing geopolitical tensions," Ruto said as he affirmed that authorities are seeking alternative export solutions.

Beyond market shocks, analysts warn that the conflict could also disrupt a complex agricultural relationship between Africa and Gulf states, many of which simultaneously invest in farmland across countries such as Ethiopia, Sudan and Ghana to secure food supplies for their own populations.