The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has drawn cautious optimism from across Africa, where analysts see it as a test of trust and leaders hope it will ease regional tensions and global energy market uncertainty.

The truce has been welcomed by leaders and regional institutions across the continent, who say a sustained pause in hostilities could help stabilize fuel supplies, ease pressure on commodity prices and avert further disruption to trade routes critical to many African economies.

However, analysts warned about the fragility of the ceasefire amid high uncertainty, following a wave of attacks by Israel that killed more than 200 people in Lebanon on Wednesday.

Gordon K'achola, founder of the Africa Center for Diplomatic Affairs, said the 14-day truce should be viewed as a crucial confidence-building measure that will test whether Washington and Tehran are prepared for a durable settlement after weeks of heightened tensions that have rattled global oil markets. "The 14 days are a trust-building exercise for both sides," K'achola said.

He noted that while the temporary pause opens space for diplomacy, its success will depend on whether all parties linked to the wider conflict fully commit to halting hostilities.

"You can't have a halfway ceasefire. If it is a ceasefire, it has to be implemented in full," he said, warning that continued hostilities in Lebanon or elsewhere could quickly undermine confidence in the process.

Across Africa, the ceasefire has been seen as an economic relief, particularly for oil-importing countries facing uncertainty over fuel supplies.

He said the crisis should serve as a wake-up call for countries to diversify their energy mix and invest more in renewable sources to cushion themselves against future geopolitical shocks.

The African Union on Wednesday said the truce offers an opportunity to ease tensions in the Middle East and reduce the global spillover effects that have already inflated fuel and commodity prices in many African countries.

Mediation efforts hailed

The AU also commended the diplomatic efforts by regional and international mediators that have helped to secure the ceasefire.

African Union Commission Chairman Mahmoud Ali Youssouf said that sustained dialogue and inclusive diplomacy remain essential to consolidating the gains made through the ceasefire, warning that only continued engagement can lead to a durable and comprehensive peace.

In South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa welcomed the ceasefire, describing it as a vital step toward restoring regional stability.

He said: "We further call on all countries to respect international law and sovereignty and the territorial integrity of all nations."

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi on Wednesday also welcomed the ceasefire, calling for a permanent agreement that would bring an end to the conflict.

He expressed hope that the temporary pause in hostilities would pave the way for a lasting settlement that restores security and stability in the region and supports the aspirations of its people for development and prosperity.

K'achola said the coming two weeks will be crucial in determining whether the ceasefire evolves into a sustainable peace process. "Every party in this negotiation must walk out feeling that they have had a victory. It has to be a careful give-and-take if this ceasefire is to hold," he said.