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The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has banned international companies from investing in local securities firms since September, worried that it will pose a threat to local brokerages even before they recover from four years of sluggish growth.

Ma Qing, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said once the regulator lifts the ban, the merger and acquisition war among local securities firms will only intensify.

Ma said that unlike a year ago, under such a bullish market the merger and acquisition costs of local brokerages have increased rapidly.

UBS AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc were the only foreign firms with brokerages in the country before the ban. Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch, No 2 and 3 US securities firms by market value, may be among the primary beneficiaries of the new opening up.

But Ma pointed out that from a global perspective, few of the joint venture models succeeded. More so as China and the US did not reach any agreement for foreign investors to hold a controlling stake in a local securities firm, which is capped at 33 percent.

Meanwhile, in order to increase local brokerages' competence, the securities regulator is encouraging innovative brokerages to expand via listing on the stock market or taking over bad performers.

The CSRC has approved Haitong Securities as the first brokerage to make a backdoor listing. Haitong will take over Shanghai Urban Agro-Business, change its name and have a total of 3.4 billion shares after the transaction.

Another leading local brokerages, China Merchant Securities, recently announced that it is consulting Goldman Sachs, Gao Hua Securities Co and UBS Securities on an IPO plan. The announcement triggered market speculation that the Shenzhen-based firm might launch an IPO soon. If it does, it would be the first securities firm to seek a direct listing since 2002, when CITIC Securities launched its IPO.