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Hong Kong's monthly inflation is expected to see a modest uptrend until the year-end after recording a lower-than-expected increase of 1.2 percent in May, as rising cost of agricultural food imports from the mainland may drive up food prices here, Bank of East Asia economist Paul Tang said.

"A moderate uptrend in inflation is likely in the coming months because of rising food import prices from the mainland amid tight supply there," he said.

"Local food prices are expected to rise and impact on the monthly inflation data in the coming months."

Tang said that May inflation came in weaker than forecast due to distortions introduced by the government's rate concessions on apartment deals.

Housing accounts for about 39 percent of the CPI basket, while food including meals bought away from home comprise about 17 percent of the CPI components.

"Excluding the housing component, inflation would have gone up 1.5 percent, higher over the preceding month," said Tang.

Tang had expected May inflation rate to come in at 1.6 percent.

The local government announced June 22 that the composite CPI was up 1.2 percent in May from a year earlier, slowing from 1.3 percent increase in April.

A government spokesman attributed the smaller year-on-year increase in consumer price inflation in May compared with April to certain rate concessions relating to property deals and a smaller rise in prices of fresh vegetables.

The spokesman said the CPI would have risen 2.3 percent were it not for the rate concessions.

He added that the measure would continue to have an impact on inflation until September this year.

Tang said average inflation is expected at 2.0 percent this year, higher than government's forecast of 1.5 percent.

"Housing costs will post moderate monthly increases due to the rate concessions expected until September. So the main inflation driver would be food," the economist said.

"I believe that inflation overall remains benign for the rest of the year... which is healthy. It signals that the economy is expanding at a steady, moderate pace."