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Economists doubt JPMorgan's stimulus estimate

By Xu Shenglan (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2008-08-21 16:34

The JPMorgan report about economic stimulus package that helped shares surge 178 points yesterday has been questioned by economists from the Ministry of Finance and National Development and Reform Commission, the National Business Daily (NBD) reported on Thursday.

According to Frank Gong, head of JPMorgan Chase & Co's China research and the report's compiler, China's policy makers are carefully considering an economic stimulus package of at least 200-400 billion yuan ($33-67 billion), which will include tax cuts and measures to stabilize domestic capital markets and support healthy development of the housing market.

"The report is 'groundless' and the only evidence may come from central banks' earlier move to encourage banks to lend more to small firms by allowing them to charge higher interest," Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of China Galaxy Securities, told the NBD.

The huge sum of investment must be approved by the National People's Congress of China, Zuo added.

The use of hundreds of billions to stimulate the economy would not be impossible, but it would have to comply with legal procedures, according to Chen Daofu, vice director of the Financial Research Institute, Development Research Center of the State Council.

"The 200-400 billion yuan calculated by JPMorgan is only a guess, but I agree with the point of saving the market," said Liu Xiahui, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, "The government has the ability to help stabilize the market through funding or other channels."

Professor Huo Deming of the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University said he had no idea about the "groundless" report, and he didn't agree with the idea of saving the market as national banks are still making money.