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ADB revises 2009 China GDP growth up to 8.2%

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-09-22 15:26

BEIJING: The Asian Development Bank said Tuesday it had revised its forecast on China's year-on-year economic growth to 8.2 percent for 2009.

The new projection for this year is higher than the bank's previous forecast of 7 percent on March 31 and above the goal of 8 percent set by the central government.

The lift in the GDP growth forecast was because of "a surge in bank lending and vigorous fixed-assets investment".

The government rolled out a 4-trillion-yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package in November last year, aiming to boost economic growth slowed by a slump in exports amid the global economic downturn. It also implemented moderately relaxed, proactive policy to help revive the economy.

"The policy has softened the blow from the global slump," the bank said.

China's economic expansion will surge to 8.9 percent in 2010, the ADB said. The momentum is mainly coming from infrastructure investment, the construction industry and consumption, while exports are also making a contribution.

The bank estimated China's consumer price index (CPI) would fall 0.5 percent from a year earlier this year and rise 3.0 percent in 2010.

"Authorities face the challenge of balancing the need to maintain aggressive monetary stimulus until growth is sustainable against the risk the flood of bank lending will be diverted into speculation and excess industry capacity," the bank said.

"Such a scenario might trigger a round of severe monetary belt-tightening in the medium term to pull growth down again," the ADB said.

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