OPINION> OP-ED CONTRIBUTORS
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OPINION> OP-ED CONTRIBUTORS
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Influenza unlikely to hit economic recovery
By Yi Xianrong (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-05-04 07:35 The swift dissemination of information on the influenza A(H1N1) throughout the world in the past few days has caused concern that the outbreak of the virus previously labeled as swine flu would strike a deadly blow to global economic recovery. Due to the panicky response to the news, stock markets worldwide had plunged, and tourism and aviation shares were hit hard, be it in the United States, Europe or Asia. The stock market appears to have overreacted to the outbreak of the flu, which was first confirmed in Mexico and then detected in the US and some other countries. However, in a globalized international community that is able to rapidly mobilize global resources to tackle any emergency crisis, the outbreak of the flu is not expected to impact too much on the steering of the world economy towards its much-anticipated recovery. In a full-blown information society, any piece of news in one country would soon spread to the rest of the world once it is posted on the Internet. That the influenza A(H1N1) cases worldwide have been made public in a rapid and timely manner has not only helped the whole international community learn about the truth of the pandemic, but has also created favorable conditions for individuals and governments to prevent and check its spread. For instance, the rapid spreading of the news about the flu across the world a few days ago has prompted all countries to take necessary emergency measures for keeping suspected cases out of their boundaries. The timely circulation of information has also helped countries to mobilize available medical materials and technological means to aid other worse-hit countries. Besides, a well-circulated information network will drive the world's medical circles to step up efforts for developing a vaccine against the flu.
However, there are two sides to a coin. Convenient communication means and their low costs and mobility are likely to contribute to the rapid spreading of the influenza A(H1N1). Also, in a well-developed information society, people's panic at the prospect of a pandemic will possibly be exaggerated. So will the market, too, overreact. It is difficult to imagine that the outbreak of the flu in Mexico would cause such huge repercussions in geographically far away Asia in a less information-driven society. Certainly, the great importance the World Health Organization and governments worldwide have attached to the flu and the series of steps they have taken, ranging from the timely issuance of alerts to effective curbs on travel and person-person contact, have also helped control its further spread. For instance, the Hong Kong special administrative region has remained on red alert since this weekend when health officials confirmed the region had detected Asia's first confirmed case of influenza A(H1N1). The region has put in place a strict monitoring regime over people's entry and exit. Also, a citywide sanitation campaign has been launched in the hope of postponing the outbreak of the next case in the region. Obviously, all these moves would help the region's highly strained battle against the flu. As a result of the effective measures taken by countries in the world, the incidence of the influenza cases has slowed its pace. That fully indicates that the flu would be confined to regions and it is unlikely to spread across the world within a short period of time. Also, in a modern world enjoying a well-developed information openness and transparency, all countries are capable of taking necessary measures to control its further spread. In a globalized world, all countries remain vulnerable to a disaster in any corner of the world. However, globalization has also made possible the timely transportation of various kinds of relief material to the affected regions to help people rebuild the economy and their lives. It is true that the outbreak of influenza A(H1N1) will have certain negative effects on the global aviation and tourism industries in the near future. But, at the same time, it will contribute to boosting the prospects of the medical sector. When it comes to the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, there are fewer reasons for us to be worried about the disease. The rich experience of the mainland and the region gained during the fight against the SARS in 2003 will sharpen their edges in fighting against the flu. The author is a researcher with the Institute of Finance and Banking under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. (China Daily 05/04/2009 page4) |
