综合一区欧美国产,99国产麻豆免费精品,九九精品黄色录像,亚洲激情青青草,久久亚洲熟妇熟,中文字幕av在线播放,国产一区二区卡,九九久久国产精品,久久精品视频免费

USEUROPEAFRICAASIA 中文雙語(yǔ)Fran?ais
Opinion
Home / Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

We might have been in the eye of the storm

By Stephen S. Roach | China Daily | Updated: 2013-08-29 09:52

As the US Federal Reserve attempts to exit from its unprecedented policy of massive purchases of long-term assets, many high-flying emerging economies are suddenly finding themselves in a vise. Currency and stock markets in India and Indonesia are plunging, with collateral damage evident in Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey.

The Fed insists that it is blameless the same absurd position that it took in the aftermath of the Great Crisis of 2008 to 2009, when it maintained that its excessive monetary accommodation had nothing to do with the property and credit bubbles that nearly pushed the world into the abyss. It remains steeped in denial: Were it not for the interest-rate suppression that quantitative easing has imposed on developed countries since 2009, the search for yield would not have flooded emerging economies with short-term "hot" money.

But there is plenty of blame to go around, the Fed is hardly alone in embracing unconventional monetary easing. Moreover, the aforementioned emerging economies all have one thing in common large current-account deficits.

A large current-account deficit is the classic symptom of a pre-crisis economy living beyond its means in effect, investing more than it is saving. The only way to sustain economic growth in the face of such an imbalance is to borrow surplus savings from abroad.

That is where quantitative easing came into play. It provided a surplus of yield-seeking capital from investors in developed countries, thereby allowing emerging economies to remain on high-growth trajectories. Research from the International Monetary Fund puts emerging markets' cumulative capital inflows at close to $4 trillion since the onset of quantitative easing in 2009. Enticed by the siren song of a shortcut to rapid economic growth, these inflows lulled emerging-market countries into believing that their imbalances were sustainable, enabling them to avoid the discipline needed to put their economies on more stable and viable paths.

This is an endemic feature of the modern global economy. Rather than owning up to the economic slowdown that current-account deficits signal accepting a little less growth today for more sustainable growth in the future politicians and policymakers opt for risky growth gambits that ultimately backfire.

That has been the case in developing Asia, not just in India and Indonesia today, but also in the 1990s, when sharply widening current-account deficits were a harbinger of the wrenching financial crisis of 1997 to 1998. But it has been equally true of the developed world.

Previous 1 2 Next

Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
莱阳市| 富裕县| 太康县| 高邮市| 天等县| 铜鼓县| 新安县| 额敏县| 东兰县| 阿鲁科尔沁旗| 建昌县| 枣阳市| 安多县| 晋州市| 南充市| 仲巴县| 德令哈市| 东城区| 淳化县| 武隆县| 旺苍县| 韶关市| 南城县| 青龙| 崇州市| 德阳市| 满洲里市| 民丰县| 四平市| 枞阳县| 涞水县| 金秀| 广昌县| 宣威市| 扎兰屯市| 吉林市| 卓尼县| 焦作市| 威宁| 商水县| 客服|